Confederations strength explained
A mathematical analysis of the FIFA confederation strength shows that the formula is basically a correct approach, but in step 5 of the formula (see below), FIFA applies a correction factor which gives a 'politically correct result', meaning the relative strength of the confederations is ignored.
The multiplier of the Football World Rankings confederation strength is determined similarly to the FIFA confederation strength, with an improvement at the end of the calculation in step 5.
1. The interconfederation matches of the last three FIFA World Cup finals are considered. Interconfederation means a match between two teams from different confederations.
2. One point is awarded for a win and half a point is awarded for a draw.
3. The average number of matches won is calculated by:
4. The average number of matches won in comparison to the best confederation is calculated by:
5. From this multiplier the square root is taken to keep the confederation in proportion yet decrease the difference slightly. FIFA takes the 4th root and impose a minimum value, which dramatically diminishes the difference between the confederations.
Ultimately we en up with the following formula: